Drought: Background on a Hot Issue ... That Needn't Be Dry - ITEM: A withering drought this year is tightening its grip on large parts of the U.S. South and Midwest. The personal tragedies and billions of dollars in economic loss will likely keep making headlines through the summer. - ITEM: A congressionally mandated National Drought Policy Commission in May recommended ways the government could better prevent or mitigate drought disasters. - ITEM: In the same month, Great Lakes water levels stood at a record low, and wildfire pushed by high winds through dry underbrush destroyed scores of houses in Los Alamos, N.M. The vivid TV footage presented by the Los Alamos fire -- resulting from what had started as a "prescribed fire" -- obscured the hundreds of thousands of other acres incinerated by wildfire, all before the hottest and driest part of the year 2000 had even begun. - ITEM: Heavy rainfall does not mean an end to drought. In early June, five people were killed when massive storms dumped as much as 15 inches of rain in north and central Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth area. Three days later, after a brief spike, USGS real-time groundwater monitoring wells showed that water levels were lower than before the storms. Often, heavy rains mean devastating runoff, but little relief from droughts. - ITEM: Weather and climate forecasts have been issued in the past, but this spring marks the first time the federal government has offered a "Drought Forecast." But even though improved data and understanding allowed improved predictions, farmers and others can not always escape drought impacts. Why Cover It? Drought has many serious effects on people’s lives. The costliest weather disaster in U.S. history, purely in terms of economic damage, was not a hurricane, flood, or tornado. It was the drought of 1988, which caused an estimated $40 billion in losses. Farmers, of course, are often the hardest hit by drought, with crop failures bringing farm auctions and permanent loss of a way of life. But droughts can mean low water levels that disrupt or stop shipping of key commodities. Droughts can dry up municipal water supplies, leaving homeowners and industries paying higher bills or making do with less. Drought can change the balance of fresh and salt water in estuaries, disrupting ecosystems and ruining the catch of commercially important seafood species. Story Ideas 1. What is the drought outlook for your particular area or region? Are chronically arid climate, cycles such as El Niño/La Niña, or other weather cycles factors? How do current drought conditions measure-up by historical standards in your area? 2. What industries in your area are most vulnerable to drought? Which agricultural crops or livestock? Which shipping modes? Which commodities? Which areas are vulnerable to wildfire -- and which of these contain vulnerable buildings? How about tourism mainstays like rafting, boating, and fishing? 3. How "drought-resistant" are your local municipal and industrial water supplies? How adequate are dams and reservoirs, the placement of water intakes, the depth of wells, water conservation and drought contingency planning, etc.? 4. Have zoning and economic development policies in your area adequately considered potential drought hazards and the natural limits of water resources? 5. If your community or region is dependent on groundwater, is it using that resource faster than it is being recharged? Will it soon be doing so? Are the aquifers being recharged at all? What are the implications for the long-term economic future of your region? 6. How much federal agricultural disaster aid have farmers in your area received because of drought over the past decade? What has been done to reduce the need for it? From a farmer’s perspective, what are the pros and cons of crop insurance? 7. Can you find any "success stories" of farmers or industries that have changed practices to better adapt to drought-prone water supplies? 8. What effects do droughts have locally/regionally on fish and wildlife? Have human changes to the water regime changed or increased the vulnerability of fish and wildlife to drought? The Drought of 2000 The year 2000 did not begin well from a drought perspective in the United States, as parts of the country had not really emerged from the drought conditions of 1999. In mid-March, drought gripped nearly half of the United States, and by early June drought still gripped large parts of the South and Midwest. Many parts of the country rely on melt-water from winter snows and spring rains to recover from the naturally dry summer season. But for some places, things did not work this way in winter-spring 2000. The La Niña weather pattern that dominated much of the United States over the previous two years had left many areas with a serious moisture deficit. The only good news was that the La Niña seemed to be dissipating, and that flooding would not be a major problem. The US Geological Survey stream gauge network showed streamflows in many parts of the South, Southeast, and Midwest to be below normal. (Editor’s Note: Reporters should expect to see the spelling "gage" used by scientists in this context -- it’s an entirely appropriate alternative spelling.) But despite La Niña’s waning, higher-than-normal temperatures were expected to speed evaporation and worsen drought. In its mid-May drought forecast, NOAA projected that extreme drought conditions would persist in Florida, Georgia, central west Texas, north Arkansas, southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern and eastern Alabama, and western South Carolina. It also said severe drought would persist in Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, Indiana, and Illinois. Background and Context To some farmers, "the drought" is something that comes regularly each July. "Drought is a normal, recurrent feature of climate, although many erroneously consider it a rare and random event," an analysis by the National Drought Mitigation Center said. News media, geared to respond to extreme weather and disaster, sometimes miss that point. Still, bigger droughts make bigger news. The Dust Bowl drought of the 1930’s, which lasted a decade and ruined tens of millions of acres of farmland, is the benchmark against which others are judged. Yet government paleoclimatologists recently reported that much worse "megadroughts" have likely occurred in the past 400 years. Droughts, in fact, have been responsible for the end of numerous civilizations in the course of human history. In some ways, such droughts are perfectly "natural" -- to be expected in the course of normal climate variability. But many of those catastrophic megadroughts -- the Dust Bowl is an obvious example -- were in fact made worse by human actions such as soil-depleting farm practices. Despite vast improvements in soil conservation practices, a landscape dotted with farm ponds, and an epic system of dams, reservoirs, and canals built by federal agencies, our nation has still not bought immunity from drought. It is estimated that droughts cause an average of $6 billion in economic losses each year in the United States. The multi-year drought that culminated in 1988 set a 50-year record for economic loss -- drawing down the Mississippi River so low that barge traffic had to stop. An estimated 4,100,000 acres were consumed by wildfire that year. Seasonal U.S. Drought Outlook (June-August 2000) Source: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment /drought_assessment.html Get far into the subject of drought and you will soon discover there are many ways of defining a drought and how bad it is. The many different drought indexes in use reflect this phenomenon: Drought can be lack of snow and rainfall. Or it can be low streamflows. Or low soil moisture and low water levels in groundwater storage aquifers. Or insufficient water for crops and vegetation. In the end, we often measure droughts by the amount of economic loss to people. Drought indicators found on Web sites below offer many such measures. One of the best is the Palmer Drought Severity Index, which is calculated from both rainfall and temperature and is standardized to local climate. The National Drought Policy Commission this year identified approximately 47 federal programs that include drought-related relief, primarily for farmers and ranchers -- although it did not quantify costs. In its recommendations, the Commission said U.S. policy should "favor preparedness over insurance, insurance over relief, and incentives over regulation." Issues - Are farmers making informed decisions on crop selection, cultivation methods, water and moisture management, etc. to minimize risks of drought-related crop failure? - Should the federal government (taxpayers) subsidize unsustainable agriculture? - What are the limits of "sustainable" municipal and industrial growth, from a water-resources perspective? Are we exceeding them? Where? - Does efficient water use need to mean "going without?" Or can it also mean "getting more" from available resources? - How has technology made people’s ability to cope with drought better -- and how has technology made things worse? Key Players - Local/regional offices of - USGS - Army Corps of Engineers - Bureau of Reclamation - Federal Emergency Management Agency - Fish and Wildlife Service - Local water utilities and sewerage authorities - Local irrigation districts - Drainage and mosquito control districts - Local office of the USDA’s Farm Services Agency (FSA) and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) - County extension agents - State water resources agency/agencies - Local ports and state transportation agencies Information Sources - U.S. Geological Survey -- Real-time streamflow conditions map: http://water.usgs.gov/dwc/. Monthly water conditions report: http://water.usgs.gov/nwc/. General water resources info: http://water.usgs.gov/. General press contact: Butch Kinerney, 703-648-4732, bkinerney@usgs.gov. USGS has lots of drought information in state and regional offices, so check with USGS media relations staffs for local contacts in each state. Historical background on drought in Southwestern states: http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/sw/impacts/hydrology/state_fd/. - National Drought Mitigation Center -- This center, based at the University of Nebraska, in Lincoln, offers a broad and media-friendly array of information resources related to drought. Partnering with federal agencies, it emphasizes reduction of drought vulnerability by planning rather than reaction to crisis. Publishes Drought Monitor (http://enso.unl.edu/monitor/monitor.html), a good update on national drought conditions, and also Drought Impacts in the US (http://enso.unl.edu/ndmc/impacts/us/usimpact.htm), a great summary of drought-related news and disaster declarations. Main phone: 402-472-6707. Main site: http://enso.unl.edu/ndmc/. Press phone contacts listed at: http://enso.unl.edu/ndmc/media.htm#timely. - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration -- Drought Information Center -- This Web site (http://www.drought.noaa.gov/) offers a roundup of the wide-ranging NOAA resources related to drought. Includes latest national and regional drought updates, indexes, and forecasts -- as well as background, agency links, and news releases. Scott Smullen, NOAA public affairs in Washington, DC, at (202) 482-6090 or Curtis Carey at NOAA’s National Weather Service public affairs at (301) 713-0622. - USDA National Water and Climate Center -- This site, maintained by USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service, includes information on agriculture’s vulnerability to climate variability like drought, as well as mitigation measures. http://ww.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ - Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin -- This USDA weekly, available online, is a good source on effects of drought on crops. Includes state summaries and useful maps. http://www.usda.gov/agency/oce/waob/jawf/wwcb.html - Western Regional Climate Center -- One of the six regional climate centers, the WRCC maintains a site with an especially rich array of climate and weather information. http://wrcc.sage.dri.edu/ - National Drought Policy Commission -- The Web site includes full text of the May 2000 report of this 15-member commission set up by Congress in 1998. http://www.fsa.usda.gov/drought/ Reprinted with permission. Published in Environment Writer newsletter June 2000, by the National Safety Council's Environmental Health Center.