In terms of population, the United States is the third-fastest growing country in the world (more than three million people added per year), lagging behind India and China. By 2030, the U.S. rate of growth will have moved into second place, overtaking China, according to Census Bureau projections.

Many Americans, and perhaps also many editors, may find these trends surprising, thinking instead that population growth is an issue primarily for less developed countries. In the U.S., population growth is often used as an indicator of economic health because it drives housing starts and other sales, but the trends raise another question: As population pressures increase on water use, development, and natural resource extraction, when does growth become a liability?

"Within a few years, America will be growing more rapidly than the world average, at a rate faster than almost all developed countries and many developing countries," says Frederick Meyerson, Ph.D., a visiting scholar at the Population Reference Bureau in Washington, D.C.

Are we outgrowing America, and are we reaching the point where the disadvantages of growth outweigh the advantages? These are some of the issues that Meyerson addresses in a book he is writing on the politics of American population in the 21st century. His book will be published by Smithsonian Books/W.W. Norton in 2005.

Meyerson, an environmental and population scientist, is an expert on international demographic policy. He is particularly interested in interactions between population growth and the environment, including climate change and loss of biodiversity.

He has taught at Yale and Brown Universities and holds a law degree from Columbia and a PhD from Yale and is a research faculty member at Georgetown University.

Time Now for 'Good Hard Look' at Population

Unchecked population growth translates into the realities of increased carbon dioxide emissions, sprawl, and increased demands on finite natural resources such as water and oil. Such issues demonstrate the need for clear directives that address population growth, says Meyerson. He points out that the US has not taken a good hard look at how to grapple with the difficult issues of population since the early 1970s.

"We don't have a long-term population policy. What we have is a collection of laws in different fields, all of which have some effect on fertility, mortality or immigration, but they are never considered as a whole," Meyerson said in a recent interview. "Thirty years ago, the Rockefeller Commission concluded that there was no long-term advantage in continued population growth for the U.S. That is still true today, but we continue to grow without a plan."

More People, More U.S. Oil Imports?

The U.S. Census Bureau projects that more than 125 million people will be added to the U.S. population by 2050, nearly a 50 percent increase. Those numbers are likely to translate into increased domestic demand for foreign oil, Meyerson says. In the 1970s, the U.S. imported 35 percent of its oil. Currently, we import nearly 55 percent, he said, and by 2025, we are expected to import 70 percent.

"Virtually all of this increase is due to population growth. We are producing more or less the same amount of oil domestically as in the 1970s, and this is unlikely to improve," he said. "Our per capita consumption hasn't changed significantly, but we add people every year, and that's what drives up our imports. As a result, our carbon dioxide emissions have also increased since 1970 at a rate equal to population growth."

The news media, says Meyerson, hasn't addressed very well the issue of population growth in the U.S. As a result, much of the American public operates under the misconception that population is stable or sustainable in the U.S. when in fact it is headed upward and will continue to do so. This poses serious challenges for the country.

He also points to the misinformation that portrays population growth issues as a problem only for the developing world. The other issue that dominates the dialogue is Europe's graying population and potential decline. This, he said, creates the mistaken impression that U.S. population problems are also over.

While it is true that fertility rates for American women have been close to replacement for about 30 years, he said, there is still increasing population growth due to baby boom echoes, increased life expectancy, and immigration. In fact, he said, the "U.S. population grew by 33 million per year in the 1990s, more than in any other decade in American history."

Immigration, in particular, is tough to talk about, said Meyerson, because "as soon as you use the words immigration and immigration policy, people say 'racist' almost immediately, regardless of what you say."

Almost one and a half million immigrants come to live in the United States each year. The classic characteristics of immigrants, he said, is that they tend to be young adults, and they arrive here ready to have children.

"This double effect (young immigrant adults and their children) is similar to a perpetual baby boom," says Meyerson.

"I'm realistic that population policy is always a difficult issue," said Meyerson, "but I'm optimistic that this might be a good time to begin a national conversation again."

Publication details: Smithsonian Books/W.W. Norton, expected publication date 2005. Meyerson can be contacted at frederickmeyerson@earthlink.net.