Pollution in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Photo: © 2004 Ian Oliver, Courtesy of Photoshare.

"People in countries with severe population, environment, and health problems get desperate. If they have no hope, they turn to drastic things like civil war and terrorism," says Pulitzer Prize-winning author Jared Diamond, whose latest book Collapse blames population and environmental problems for societal failures.

History shows that this is not a new phenomenon: Consider the fates of Easter Island, classical Mayan civilization, and the Norse of Greenland. And today, countries suffering from rapid population growth and environmental degradation show up on every map of political hotspots: Afghanistan, Burundi, Haiti, Indonesia, Iraq, Madagascar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, and the Solomon Islands, to name just a few.

But experts warn that the line connecting war to rapid population growth and environmental degradation is not a straight one. And the solutions to these problems are not easy to identify -- or always politically feasible. Environment, population, and security offer fertile ground for news stories that can affect the very lives of your readers, but the complex linkages must be carefully explained.

We're halfway there: Terrorist attacks have brought the connections among environmental degradation, poverty, and conflict to many people's front doors, and to the highest levels of governments. As former Secretary of State Colin Powell said in a 2005 Foreign Policy article, "We have a strategy that sees economics, politics, and security as three parts of a whole -- a strategy that combines growth methods that work with social development and sound environmental stewardship." By describing the impact of population and environment on security, journalists might knock down other barriers blocking coverage of "soft" threats in favor of "hard" news.

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Story Ideas

1. Where will the next wave of immigration come from, based on patterns of population growth and environmental degradation? Will this wave affect U.S. national security?
2. What environmental resources shared by the United States with its neighbors are vulnerable to terrorist attack or sabotage?
3. Male-preference practices are skewing sex ratios in India and China, potentially leading to increased violence. Is this practice becoming more prevalent in the U.S., and if so, what impact could it have on society?
4. Why do the Millennium Development Goals, the most ambitious and extensive development targets set, include no family planning targets?
5. Business stories:
   • How has the international AIDS crisis affected companies that research, design, manufacture, or distribute family planning products, such as condoms? Similarly, how have the prohibitions restricting funding for family planning organizations affected these companies?
   • What businesses could benefit from increased funding to restore and remediate environmental problems inflicted by war?
   • Which companies are poised to answer China's call for more environmental control technologies and renewable energy sources to protect its population from the effects of its extraordinary economic growth?
6. Recently, citizens in Zhejiang Province, China, rioted to protest perceived environmental injustices perpetrated by chemical factories and corrupt local officials. What other environmental injustices internationally, nationally, and regionally might cause instability?
7. Former conflict zones, particularly in Africa, are being transformed into "peace parks" -- conservation zones designed to promote peace between former combatants. Some, such as the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Park, will offer sophisticated safari lodging and unparalleled wildlife viewing, along with a trenchant history lesson. Take your readers on a tour of these unique eco-tourism destinations.
8. Population growth at the edges of conservation zones in Central Africa has increased the poaching of wild animals for food (bushmeat), pitting park rangers against local people in sometimes-violent encounters. Tell your readers about U.S.-funded efforts that use family planning education to help prevent these conflicts, save endangered primates, and reduce the chances of animal-human transmission of infectious diseases. Also, new logging roads into remote areas help bring bushmeat to wealthier urban populations with a taste for game. Does buying tropical hardwood furniture or lumber contribute to the spread of new and potentially deadly diseases?
9. Population growth can increase pressures on scarce natural resources, sometimes leading to local conflicts between users that share them. But instead of fighting, some groups find ways to cooperate to ensure their access to vital supplies. Are there examples of both conflict and cooperation over resources in your area?

As countries' birth rate declined during the last three decades of the 20th century, their likelihood of civil conflict also tended to decline. While this relationship was most dramatic in the 1990s, it was also evident during the 1970s and 1980s, decades during which many civil conflicts were considered to be Cold War "proxy wars" (each side supported by one of the opposing superpowers). Source: Cincotta, Richard P., Robert Engelman, & Daniele Anastasion (2003). The security demographic: Population and civil conflict after the cold war. Washington, D.C.: Population Action International.

10. China's runaway growth fuels its insatiable demand for oil, leading it to make deals with some shady governments and unstable states, like Venezuela and Sudan. How will China's desire to lock up oil resources affect not only U.S. energy security, but also the stability and power of these states?
11. Conflict diamonds are well-known, but other consumer products also rely on natural resources that fuel intractable conflicts in developing countries. "No blood on my mobile phone" is just one example of a campaign to fight such a scourge, the exploitation of coltan in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Other examples include "conflict timber": logging (usually illegal) that has funded combatants in Indonesia, Cambodia, and the Philippines.
12. Popular radio soap operas -- often funded by U.S. government agencies and NGOs -- deliver family planning and environmental education to communities in developing countries. Using compelling characters and dramatic storylines to engage listeners, these radio programs influence public behavior on issues ranging from family planning to corruption, in order to address the root causes of environmental degradation. How effective are these "dramas with directives" in effecting desired behavioral changes?

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Background and Context

Why are population and environment security issues?

Higher populations increase demands for natural resources (e.g., water, food, land, minerals), especially in developing countries, which often lack the technological and economic systems that can protect their citizens from the vagaries of nature. When resources necessary to sustain life are threatened, people may fight their neighbors to preserve livelihoods, leading to violence and civil conflict.

Families crowd a train at the Senen train station in Central Jakarta, Indonesia, on their way home for "Mudik." Mudik is an Indonesian tradition which calls for a return to one's home town every Iedul Fitri or Lebaran, a Moslem Holy Day which is celebrated every year after a month of fasting. Many believe their return home to celebrate with family cannot be delayed for any reason whatever, as if the sun would not rise another day, regardless of travel safety. Most of them return to Jakarta with new relatives, increasing the urban population and contributing to problems such as unemployment, crime, and housing. Photo: © 2004 Samuel, Courtesy of Photoshare.

Usually, however, the connections among population, environment, and conflict are not so simple or easy to see. Poverty -- which has multiple, interrelated causes, including population growth and environmental degradation -- can breed discontent or exacerbate tensions among groups. These underlying grievances can undermine a fragile state's legitimacy and stability, and can contribute to its failure, thus creating another political "hotspot" that threatens U.S. interests and world peace. In addition, unstable or failing states can be havens for extralegal groups intent on inflicting harm abroad, such as criminals and terrorists.

But, in the end, some experts say, "dead is dead," whether people die violently in a dramatic clash or silently in their bed from malaria. Security, then, can be more than just a national or international issue: it is a human one. This relatively new concept, "human security," regards all threats to people's lives -- whether from war or disease or climate change -- as a direct threat to security. In this context, population growth, environmental degradation, infectious diseases, and other threats to life are security issues in and of themselves.

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Conflict and Population/Environment: Examples

Since the early 1990s, a number of research projects have studied the links between environmental stress -- particularly, scarcities of cropland, forests, and fresh water -- and violence in the developing world. Many of these researchers concluded that while environmental stress cannot, by itself, cause violence, when combined with other factors, usually the failure of economic institutions and government, conflict may erupt.

The continued instability in Haiti offers a classic example: a rapidly growing population demanded more and more scarce resources, deforesting the once-green island and pushing tens of thousands into overcrowded urban slums. Governmental institutions failed, and thousands took to the seas to escape to the United States. In 2004, storms unleashed terrible floods, which swept down the denuded hillsides, killing hundreds and exacerbating the political crisis that has engulfed the nation since Aristide's re-election in 2000. Meanwhile, Haiti's neighbor, the Dominican Republic, lost only a fraction of its citizens to the flooding, in part because of its greater forest cover.

Population growth and environmental disasters have contributed also to the simmering dispute between India and Bangladesh, where population density has skyrocketed and devastating floods regularly engulf portions of each country. "Environmental refugees" from Bangladesh flee to India, engendering conflict with the residents and sometimes leading to organized violence against the newcomers. This situation may only get worse: Climate experts predict that 16 percent of Bangladesh's low-lying territory could be inundated as the seas rise, increasing the risk of health problems such as dengue fever and water-borne pathogens.

Balancing young and old segments of a population may have an even bigger impact on the chances of violence. According to The Security Demographic, countries with a high number of young adults (at least 40 percent of the adult population between the ages of 15 and 29) were 2.3 times more likely to suffer a civil conflict during the 1990s. The authors also found that rapidly growing cities, scarcities of cropland and water, and HIV/AIDS may contribute significantly to the risk of deadly civil violence. Changing demographics -- specifically, transitioning from high birth-high death rates to low birth-low death rates -- may help reduce conflict. According to Richard Cincotta, Ph.D., "Early-phase states -- including Iraq, Pakistan, and Nigeria -- might lower their risk of civil conflict during their transitions to democracy and free markets if they advanced through the demographic transition." However, "one-third of all countries in the world remain in the early stages, with four or more children per woman."

A girl holds a younger child in the Visayas region of central Philippines. In the Philippines, 38 percent of the population is under the age of 15, while only 4 percent of the population is over 65. Photo: © 2000 Liz Gilbert/David and Lucile Packard Foundation, Courtesy of Photoshare.

What happens when sex selection leaves a nation with significantly more men than women? In their controversial MIT Press book Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia's Surplus Male Population, Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer assert that historically high male-to-female ratios can trigger domestic and international violence. Since the mid-1980s, widespread sex selection has skewed the sex ratios of some Asian countries -- particularly China and India -- in favor of males on a scale that may be unprecedented in human history. This disproportionate number of low-status young adult males (called "bare branches" by the Chinese) could threaten domestic stability and international security. The authors point to numerous historical examples in which similar imbalances have engendered societal instability.

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Cooperation and Population/Environment: Examples

Population-driven environmental scarcity doesn't necessarily lead to conflict; Sometimes, it can help make peace. Take water resources, for example. Despite the headlines screaming "Water Wars are Coming!," the reality is just the opposite: No nations have gone to war specifically over water resources for thousands of years, according to data collected by Aaron Wolf, Ph.D., of Oregon State University. International water disputes -- even among fierce enemies -- are resolved peacefully, even as conflicts erupt over other issues. In fact, from 1945-1999, instances of cooperation between river-sharing nations outnumbered conflicts by more than two to one.

Why? Because water is so important that nations simply cannot afford to fight over it. Instead, water fuels greater interdependence. By coming together to jointly manage their shared water resources, countries build trust and prevent conflict. Water can be a negotiating tool, too: it can offer a communication lifeline connecting countries in the midst of crisis. For example, according to expert Erika Weinthal, "Israeli and Palestinian water managers continued to cooperate -- even as other forms of economic and security cooperation collapsed -- after the second Intifada began in 2000."

Some other examples of water peacemaking:

• Israel and Jordan have held secret "picnic table" talks to manage the Jordan River since 1953, even though they were officially at war from 1948 until the 1994 treaty.
• The Indus Waters Treaty stayed in force despite three wars between India and Pakistan since its signing in 1960.
• All 10 countries that share the Nile Basin now are involved in senior government–level negotiations to develop the basin water resources cooperatively, despite verbal battles conducted in the media.
• Southern African countries signed a number of river basin agreements while the region was embroiled in a series of wars in the 1970s and 1980s, including the "people's war" in South Africa and civil wars in Mozambique and Angola. Now that most of the wars and the apartheid era have ended, water management forms one of the foundations for cooperation in the region.
• Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and Thailand formed the Mekong Committee in 1957 and continued exchanging water data throughout the Southeast Asian wars of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s.

A health worker counsels a woman on reproductive health and family planning in the Visayas region of central Philippines. The Philippines has the highest fertility rate in Asia, 3.7 children per family, compared to less than 2 children in the US. Their population doubles every 20 years. Voluntary family planning programs are allowing women and couples to plan the number of children they want to have. Photo: © 2000 Liz Gilbert/David and Lucile Packard Foundation, Courtesy of Photoshare.

Integrating population, health, and environmental programs also can return a peace dividend. Some conservation-minded NGOs and aid agencies are addressing the problem holistically -- offering people health care and microcredit while protecting wildlife -- to help avoid the conflicts that may spring from efforts to protect resources in poor countries. Reducing population growth rates can also reduce pressures on environmental resources and thus help mitigate conflicts that can erupt from unsustainable practices, such as poaching and illegal logging.

In addition, improving people's abilities to support themselves over the long-term -- by reducing family size, avoiding disease, conserving precious resources, and learning sustainable farming techniques, for example -- can reduce poverty and thus the grievances that can destabilize states.

The Jane Goodall Institute's Lake Tanganyika Catchment Reforestation and Education (TACARE) project in Tanzania, for example, is designed to address poverty and support sustainable livelihoods, while arresting the rapid degradation of natural resources in the remaining indigenous forest. The program uses a community-centered conservation approach to meet human needs while promoting conservation. By combining programs like family planning with tree-planting, TACARE encourages grassroots sustainable development, which reduces conflict between the community and conservation goals. In addition, TACARE is planning to expand its successful program to the Congo Basin, a region rich in resources but riven by war.

What happens to the environment after war? Environmental damage sustained during conflict -- from "scorched earth" warfare to chronic pollution -- poses serious health threats and prevents nations from recovering. Post-conflict environmental reconstruction can be a tool not only to improve post-war conditions, but also to build bridges between former enemies. For example, the United Nations Environment Programme, UNEP, is shepherding negotiations between Iraq and Iran over the issue of regional water management in the Mesopotamian Marshlands. A May 2004 meeting of delegates from Iran and Iraq marked the first time in 29 years that both countries discussed managing the natural resources on their common border.

Some former conflict zones are being transformed into "peace parks": conservation zones designed to promote peace as well as conservation and tourist-driven development. These transboundary parks not only allow wildlife to roam freely, but also break down barriers separating former combatants. A peace park in the remote rainforest shared by Peru and Ecuador helped settle an intermittently violent, decades-long dispute over the border between the two countries; the 1998 peace agreement brokered by Brazil, Chile, and the United States specifically included joint environmental management structures. Some experts have recommended creating peace parks in similarly contested border areas, such as the K2-Siachen region between India and Pakistan, to encourage a climate of cooperation.

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Additional Resources

The Environmental Change and Security Program of the Woodrow Wilson Center promotes dialogue on the connections among environmental, health, and population dynamics and their links to conflict, human insecurity, and foreign policy. Recent publications include:

• "Environment, Population, and Health: Strategies for a More Secure World (pdf)" by Jared Diamond.
• “Should Global Poverty Be A U.S. National Security Concern? (pdf)"
• “From Environmental Peacemaking to Environmental Peacekeeping (pdf)” by Erika Weinthal.
• “Demographic Security Comes of Age (pdf),” by Richard Cincotta.
• Press Contact: Meaghan Parker, 202-691-4182, parkerme@si.edu (meaghan.parker@wilsoncenter.org after October 2005).

The Jane Goodall Institute's Community-Centered Conservation Programs in the Congo Basin address poverty and support sustainable livelihoods, while arresting the rapid degradation of natural resources in the remaining indigenous forest.

• TACARE in Tanzania.
• Bushmeat Fact Sheet.
• Press Contact: Nona Gandelman, 240-645-4000, ngandelman@janegoodall.org.

A sign at KTR Sindhi English High School in India announces a day long workshop organized on Reproductive Rights and Population Education by the All India Population Education Research Centre to mark World Population Day. Photo: © 2004 Amok Nagrare, Courtesy of Photoshare.

Population Action International (PAI), an independent policy advocacy group working to strengthen public awareness and political and financial support worldwide for population programs, published The Security Demographic, by Richard P. Cincotta, Robert Engelman, and Daniele Anastasion, in 2003. Press contact: Tawana Jacobs, (202) 557-3422, tjacobs@popact.org.

Project on Environment, Population, and Security, led by Thomas Homer-Dixon, was one of the first to study the links between population and security.

The Transboundary Freshwater Disputes Database at Oregon State University collects data on decades of water conflict and cooperation. Director Aaron Wolf's "International waters: Identifying basins at risk (pdf)” summarizes the results of their analysis.

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) addresses the links connecting environment, population, and security through a number of initiatives:

• UNEP's Post-Conflict Assessment Unit works in areas of the world where the environment has been damaged as result of conflict.
• UNEP's Environment and Conflict Initiative (pdf) has published an analysis of environment, conflict, and cooperation, including brief articles on the Nile Basin Initiative and the K-2 Siachen Peace Park.
• Our Planet, UNEP's magazine, published a special issue devoted to environmental security in 2004, with articles by Nobel laureate Wangari Maathai and former CIA Director James Woolsey, among others: http://www.ourplanet.com/imgversn/154/images/Our_Planet_15.4_english.pdf (pdf).
• Press contact: Nick Nutall, + 254 20 623084, nick.nuttall@unep.org.

The Worldwatch Institute's State of the World 2005: Redefining Global Security examines the global security threats and opportunities posed by the environment and population; in addition to the book, resources include security briefs, trends and facts, and online webchats:

• "Managing Water Conflict and Cooperation."
• "Promoting Environmental Cooperation as a Peace-Building Tool."
• "Youth Bulge, Underemployment Raise Risks of Civil Conflict."
• Press Contact: Darcey Rakestraw, drakestraw@worldwatch.org, 202.452.1992 x517.

USAID's Office of Population and Reproductive Health advances and supports voluntary family planning and reproductive health programs worldwide. Examples of innovative USAID programs include community-based conservation projects that link population and environment in Madagascar and the Congo Basin, and radio soap operas that encourage contraceptive use in Ethiopia. Find success stories at http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/global_health/pop/news/story.html; for more information on Family Planning, please contact USAID at LChomiak@usaid.gov.

Toolkits from USAID's Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation explain the connections between a critical focus area -- land, youth, minerals -- and conflict: See http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/cross-cutting_programs/conflict/recent_events/spotlight.html.

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