Reporter David Firestone called it right two full days before the key Senate vote that defeated the GOP maneuver of hitching the decision to drill ANWR onto the budget resolution, where it would be filibuster-proof and could pass by a simple majority. Most observers thought the vote too close to call, and both sides, of course, publicly expressed optimism up until the end. The story was sourced to anonymous "Senate Republican officials." Projecting confidence of victory is an important element of gamesmanship in the marble Senate corridors. No senator wants to cast an "expensive" vote if it will be wasted (and this one was expensive, with Appropriations Chairman Ted Stevens (R-AK), threatening the projects and taking names of anyone who voted against him). Anonymous predictions of one's own victory are abundant; not so, anonymous predictions of defeat. Maybe Firestone was just lucky. Or maybe he had rare access and trust to get such candor from Senate leaders.

(See: http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/18/politics/18DRIL.html)