Natural climate variation and human emissions of greenhouse gases likely will combine to make 2003 “match or beat the modern record set in 1998,” when the periodic El Nino helped raise global temperatures. Reporter Andrew C. Revkin, who clearly gets more ink on climate change issues than any other daily newspaper reporter in the U.S., reports that the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research in Britain puts the odds at 50-50 that average 2003 global temperature will meet or exceed the record set in 1998. NASA Scientist James E. Hansen puts the odds at more than that unless a huge sun-blocking volcano or something analogous intercedes. Revkin reports that the global average temperature from 1880 to 2001 was 56.9; it was 58.0 in 1998 and estimated to be 57.9 in 2002. (See: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F10910F63F5B0C728FDDAB0994DA404482)